I have friends in China, people who are like extended family who basically adopted me into their family when I was living there. I have students in China, who I do not have access to information from except when I am in class with them. I am worried, because I know that in China the best medicine is to not get sick. While the country is miles ahead of us when it comes to preventative medicine, I know that the hospitals are not set up to deal with masses of people who are already sick. We need to send our love and support to China in every way we can, however I don’t think it is time to panic, at least not yet.
This is a chart taken from the ecdc.europa.eu that updates the number of cases reported both in and out of China. It looks terrifying, and it is, but it also makes a lot of sense given the incubation period of the virus and the Chinese Lunar New Year. According to the CDC Coronavirus has an incubation period of up to 14 days (meaning you can be contagious but not show symptoms for 14 days). Chinese Lunar New Year was early this year, falling on January 24th. Depending on individuals work schedules, they would have been traveling to their home towns up to a week before Chinese New Years, which explains the first peak we see, between February 4-7 (11-15 days after Chinese New Years). The 13th looks truly terrifying (coincidence that is supposed to be an unlucky number?). The thirteenth is about two weeks after the first spike of reported infections, who were likely traveling home before they realized they had the infection. It is also likely that there is some sort of reporter bias, with China releasing updated numbers on the 13th, because the 13th is an outlier. We do see that there is a continued spike on the 14th but not nearly as extreme.
All this to say listen to facts not fear. Yes it is bad. In some parts of China it is really really bad. Stay in touch with loved ones in infected areas, and get updates directly from them rather then the media. Don’t start digging out your bunker just yet.
After thought: some perspective on Chinese New Years
This virus really came at the worst possible time, and I don’t think most westerners grasp how much of a “perfect storm” it was. The closest holiday equivalent we have of Chinese New Years is Christmas. Everyone goes home to visit family members, and travels around to see extended family, and inevitably share germs. The last couple of years bad cold and flu bugs have been passed around my own extended family following Christmas. However most of us in the western world travel in our own little climate and germ controlled vehicles. In China, where public transportation is not just more accessible, but also a necessity, there is no climate and germ controlled bubble surrounding the transportees.
Furthermore there are far to few trains, and buses to contain the number of Chinese citizens who need to travel, especially when they all decide to travel at once. When we traveled to my friend’s home town for Chinese New Years we were lucky to get seats. The isle was crammed full of people standing, and these aren’t city buses but coach buses. They are not built to have people standing in the isles. I’m not talking a handful of people standing around either, when a Chinese bus is packed, there is no such thing as a personal bubble. people are jammed in tight, even standing right down the stairs to the point where sometimes the bus driver can’t even close the doors! Everyone has to squeeze in tighter together to get the door shut, and then immediately expand back out to fill the space around the door again. And when you would think the bus can’t possibly fit any more people the bus driver thinks, eh, lets let 10 more on. So picture that with one person with coronavirus coughing. Then imagine those people getting on and off several different buses before making it to their final destination where they merrily spread around their new collection of germs to friends and family members.
So there it is, the corona is out of the bottle, but hopefully the worst of it has passed. Theoretically the aggressive quarantine that is keeping Chinese citizens isolated in their homes should decrease the impact, and we should see the rise in coronavirus cases leveling off.
"China" Figure it Out 